Implications of the Libyan Spring failure on Sudan, Chad and the Sahel-Sahara Region
By Mahmoud A. Suleiman
News Media indicated that the leaders of terrorist organizations in Libya started transporting fighters from Syria to Benghazi. Furthermore, the terrorists will move soon to Sudan and Chad. This brewing scourge is the result of the failure of the so-called Arab Spring in general, and the Libyan spring particularly. The implications of that would be disastrous for Sudan, Chad, and the Sahel-Sahara region as political analysts say. Moreover, the pariah regime of the National Congress Party (NCP) led by the war criminal fugitive Omer Hassan Ahmed al-Bashir in Khartoum has recently shipped loads of weapons, ammunition and military supplies to the so-called supporters of Sharia Movement, Ansar al-Sharia in Libya (ASL) or (Partisans of Islamic law – Sharia and other Islamic terrorist militias based in Benghazi in Libya. Moreover, newspaper quoted unnamed sources as saying that Abdel Hakim Belhaj himself travelled to Sudan for meetings with officials there to coordinate logistics for Qatari aid. Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) spokesperson denied allegations that the (NCP) regime sending any kind of support to the Libyan Islamist militias (Sudan Tribune). Nevertheless, a video footage shown in the social media outlet exposed the Sudan’s regime denial.
The long-term strategy has become clear by the extent of Islamist’s regrouping in Sudan. The two archrival factions of the former National Islamic Front (NIF), namely al-Bashir’s (NCP) and Hassan al-Turabi’s Popular Congress Party (PCP) and their support for the Ansar al-Sharia in Libya. And behind them the international organization of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Islamist militia remnants that fled from Mali and their allies in the Gulf region and Iran will not give up easily. All the Islamist militias in Libya after the inevitable defeat by the forces of the retired former Libyan Army General Khalifa Haftar overpowered and driven off to their stronghold Sudan to join ranks with the remnants of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood who already fled to Khartoum. The Islamists aggregation in Khartoum under the auspices of the embattled (NCP) regime starts implementation of the scheme of destabilisation of the situation in both Egypt and Libya through supporting the opposition in both countries.
The fundamentalists in the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, Libyan Ansar al-Sharia, West African Islamist militia remnants, and the Sudan’s recycled Janjaweed militia dubbed Rapid Support Forces (RSF) / Rapidly Killing Forces (RKF) under the al-Bashir’s regime will put obstacles in the way of achieving stability, economic prosperity, security and provision of services to the people of Libya and Egypt. The evil intend behind the foregoing to create destabilisation with a view to stir up popular uprisings of the people in the respective countries. Such state of affairs without doubt would distract the nation building goals of the countries and divert it to combatting terrorism and seditions.
The implications of the failure of the Libyan Spring on Sudan and Chad and the Sahel-Sahara region generally will have far-reaching effects unless the local, regional and international efforts team up to combat the evil forces in their embryonic, prior to hatching stage. Once a famous poem attributed to a Poet Nasr ibn Sayar Kanani quoted as saying: I see the flash of Fire under the ashes almost ablaze! One seems certain that the people of the world would not wait and see the Boko Haram version of fundamentalist Islamic extremism prevails in their backyards nor seeing the rise of statelet along the lines of the pattern of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), known for short in Arabic as Daash.
According to political analysts and observers, the Sudanese regime harbours these remnants of the Islamist terrorists for a number of reasons that include
• The Sudanese government’s loss of trust and confidence in the Sudan armed Forces (SAF) a long time ago, and continued to rely on the Janjaweed militia nicknamed the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
• The Sudanese government wants to inherit all the logistical capabilities of the Libyan Islamic Militias –Ansar al-Sharia- that consist of sophisticated weapons, ammunition, and the money in cash to build an integrated belt in the Sahel-Sahara region with epicenter in Sudan and Chad. The hidden purpose would be the use arsenal and other capabilities of the Libyan Islamic militias to support elements of the Chadian opposition with the view to oust the government of President Idriss Déby. To complete the strategy, the NCP regime begins the launching systematic onslaught on Islamic Sahel-Saharan States especially the lost paradise for its allies of France and Chad or the State of Mali.
• The Sudanese regime wants to remain in power, by all means, at the same way that of Bashar al-Assad in Syria will open the country to the alliance of Iran and Hezbollah, besieged by Saudi Arabia and Egypt to the south. This axis of evil has a link with Russia and China for intersecting interests.
• The Sudanese government has lost confidence in the Sudan armed Forces (SAF) a long time ago, and continued to rely on the Janjaweed militia nicknamed the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that lost its constitutional legitimacy, as forces outside of the Sudanese armed forces operating under the command of the so-called National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS). Therefore, the regime of the (NCP) planned to rely on the remnants of the forces Islamist Libyans as a deterrent to prevent any possibility of coup d’état by the (SAF) or by the (RSF). Given the fact that, coup d’état is a risky irrational attempt in the sense if that if calculated by a balanced mind using the mathematical equations, one might have not attempted a military coup in the first place.
• Political strategists indicate that in the wake of the rapid developments in Libya it warrant revisiting alliances and calculations in the region surrounding Libya as a whole, though Egypt and Algeria have settled their positions, by siding with the retired Libyan Army General Khalifa Haftar. President Idriss Déby in Chad needs to resolve his position with the parties in Libya, and prepare for the next stage after defeating the terrorists and their expulsion from Libya. This also involves the Sudanese opposition groups, both civilian and armed opposition.
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Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman is an author, columnist and a blogger. His blog is http://thussudan.wordpress.com/